What risk does remittance dependence pose to Guatemala's economy?

Almost a fifth of GDP (19.1% in 2024) depends on transfers from the United States. That exposes the economy to shifts in US immigration policy and means consumption growth does not reflect domestic productivity. Moody's warns that the massive inflow “has not translated into real development” because of high informality (TodaNoticia coverage, May 2026). Remittances are at once the prop under the quetzal and the external account, and the country's principal external vulnerability.