What is Fitch's rating on Guatemala and how did it get there?

Fitch upgraded Guatemala from BB to BB+ with a stable outlook on Oct 14, 2025, with a BBB country ceiling, one notch below investment grade. The path there: on Feb 7, 2025 Fitch revised the outlook from stable to positive while keeping BB; in that action it estimated 2024 growth of 3.7%, international reserves up 14.6% in 2024 to US$24.4 billion, and a sovereign net external creditor position of 9.8% of GDP in 2024, "the strongest in Latin America" among its peer group (peer median: 0.5%). In Nov 2025, in "Latin America's 'BB' Rising Stars", Fitch listed Guatemala among the BB-category sovereigns that could reach investment grade, alongside Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Paraguay. A reported affirmation of BB+ stable around Aug 5, 2026 awaits primary confirmation.