Fitch's rating and its trajectory
- Macroeconomy, ratings and risk
- Sovereign rating and country risk
- not audited
Fitch upgraded Guatemala from BB to BB+ with a stable outlook on 14-Oct-2025, with a BBB country ceiling — one notch below investment grade. The path there: on 7-Feb-2025 Fitch revised the outlook from stable to positive while keeping BB; in that action it estimated 2024 growth of 3.7%, international reserves up 14.6% in 2024 to US$24.4 billion, and a sovereign net external creditor position of 9.8% of GDP in 2024, "the strongest in Latin America" among its peer group (peer median: 0.5%). In Nov-2025, in "Latin America's 'BB' Rising Stars", Fitch listed Guatemala among the BB-category sovereigns that could reach investment grade, alongside Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic and Paraguay. A reported affirmation of BB+ stable around 5-Aug-2026 awaits primary confirmation (ISS-FITCH-JUL2026-REVIEW).
The research is written in English; quoted figures, source names and the titles of legal instruments stay in the language their source published them in.
Figures
- Fitch rating
- BB+, stable outlook (upgraded from BB; country ceiling BBB)
- Previous action: outlook to positive (BB affirmed)
- 7 Feb 2025
- Growth estimated by Fitch in the Feb-2025 action
- 3.7%
- Sovereign net external position (Feb-2025 action)
- 9.8% of GDP (peer median 0.5%)
Caveat
Sources
- Fitch Ratings — subida BB→BB+ con perspectiva estable, 14-oct-2025; registrada vía verificación de prensa de la capa de estrategia (29-ago-2026); confirmación primaria pendiente (ISS-FITCH-JUL2026-REVIEW)
- Investing.com — Guatemala's rating outlook revised to positive by Fitch
- MEF Paraguay — Regional Outlook of Sovereign Ratings dic-2025 (cita Fitch, Latin America's 'BB' Rising Stars, 25-nov-2025)
Related records
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