Guatemala's losses to smuggling and illicit trade

The most cited estimate comes from the FUNDESA-CACIF study of July 2014: an annual fiscal loss from smuggling (as evasion) of up to Q5,900 million, equivalent to US$755 million, around 1.6% of current GDP; the same study put the value of illicit trade in goods in 2012 at ~Q14.2 billion (3.6% of GDP) in the likely scenario, within a range of Q11.2-17.2 billion. The comparison with ministerial budgets that had been circulating does not appear in the study and was removed. CODECOF/CIG with CABI (April 2022) estimates a tax gap from smuggling and customs fraud of Q1,400 million a year ('more than 1% of GDP', with no year given in the source) and Q25,000 million (US$3,230 million) in annual economic losses. CONACON calculates losses of no less than US$1,600 million a year, but the original note could not be located and should not be used without a primary source.

The research is written in English; quoted figures, source names and the titles of legal instruments stay in the language their source published them in.